COGNITIVE BIAS
Availability Heuristic
The vivid example feels common
What it means
Events that are recent, dramatic, emotional, or easy to remember can feel more frequent or probable than they really are. The mind substitutes “Can I recall an example?” for “How often does this happen?”
Typical uses
Crime, disasters, medical risk, investing, aviation, news coverage, and public reactions after a vivid incident.
ORIGIN
Where the idea came from
- Creator or lineage
- Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman
- Country
- Israel
- Years
- Tversky: 1937–1996; Kahneman: 1934–2024
- Development
- Named and studied in 1973.
- Catchphrase
- “The vivid example feels common”
People may judge likelihood by how easily examples come to mind.
Read the source: Original 1973 research paperQUESTIONS TO ASK
- What does the base rate show?
- Is the example representative?
- Would this feel as likely without the recent story?
You do not need to know this concept’s name to use its reasoning. The name simply helps you recognize, examine, and discuss the pattern.
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